Sabalenka's rare three-peat chase: 17-match unbeaten run in New York, she's chasing the ghost of Serena Williams

When the world watches the final winner, I look at the number 17. Aryna Sabalenka has just extended her unbeaten streak at Flushing Meadows to 17 consecutive matches after her quarter-final victory over Taylor Townsend at the 2026 US Open. But the more significant number isn't from the match just played — it lies in the history she's approaching. Sabalenka, the world No. 1 and defending champion, has reached the semi-finals without dropping a set at this year's tournament. Her win over Townsend — the world No. 96 — followed a familiar script: early breaks exchanged, then Sabalenka accelerated and dominated completely. She saved a crucial break point with a booming serve to close the first set, then won the final four games of the second set after trailing 3-1. That's the hallmark of a champion who knows how to turn the tide. But what makes Sabalenka's campaign this year special isn't just her form. It's that she stands on the verge of doing something no one has done since Serena Williams in 2026-2026: winning the US Open three consecutive years. This feat hasn't been replicated in over a decade, and Sabalenka is very close. Looking at her career data at this tournament, Sabalenka's consistency is almost anomalous. She has reached the quarter-finals or better at the US Open for six straight years (2026-2026). Her overall record at this event stands at 34 wins and 6 losses, a win rate of 85%. This isn't a player who just 'clicks' with the surface — this is a player who has built her empire on New York concrete. Sabalenka's playing style — aggressive baseline, reliant on a powerful serve and heavy groundstrokes — is perfectly designed for hard courts. Against Townsend, she didn't need to show versatility: no excessive net play, no drop shots. Just serve well, hit deep, and wait for the opponent to err. That's the formula that won her the title last year, and it's driving her toward the three-peat. Her next opponent is Linda Noskova, the young Czech player. On ranking and experience, Noskova isn't a match for Sabalenka. But tennis is never decided on paper. Townsend, despite being ranked 96th, still managed to create a competitive second set before Sabalenka exploded. That shows even weaker opponents can cause trouble if they start correctly. There's a contrarian angle here: the overhyping of Sabalenka could create invisible pressure. History shows many players have crumbled in three-peat chases under the weight of expectation. But watching how she handled the break point in the first set — staying composed, serving powerfully, unflinching — you see someone accustomed to pressure. That's something statistics don't capture, yet it's the decisive factor in big matches. Another interesting aspect lies in the commercial dimension. Sabalenka's celebratory TikTok dance video after the match isn't just an entertaining moment — it's a deliberate brand-building strategy. At a time when a player's commercial value is measured by social media engagement, Sabalenka excels at maintaining a relatable image. This explains why she's both a dominant player on court and a global brand off it. The Arthur Ashe Stadium with home crowds will surely boost Sabalenka in the semi-final. She's been accustomed to their support for six years, and that backing is an advantage that can't be quantified by metrics. But the biggest question remains: can she overcome herself — overcome the pressure of history, of expectation, of the three-peat the world is waiting for? The data says she's on the right track. 17 unbeaten matches, 6 consecutive quarter-final appearances, 85% win rate at the tournament — all point in one direction. But tennis isn't played on paper. It's played on court, where a missed serve, a net cord, or a moment of lost concentration can change everything. Sabalenka stands before the opportunity to do what only Serena Williams has done in the past decade. If she completes it, she won't just be a champion — she'll enter the realm of legends. And with the way she's playing, the composure and power she displays, I see no reason to doubt. But I've followed tennis long enough to know: history isn't written in advance. It's written in each match, each point, each moment. And Sabalenka's next moment comes in the semi-final against Noskova. Will she stand firm? The data says yes. But tennis, as we know, never perfectly follows the data.